By Akshita Mathur
In June of 2016, the United Kingdom made a decision that was the first of its kind. Following the international trend of nationalism, the country decided to separate from the European Union – officially evoking Article 50 – on March 29th, 2017. This gave the EU & the UK until March 29th, 2019 to negotiate an agreement, and with this deadline approaching fast, the pressure can be seen oceans away. The uncertainty of Brexit has led to an estimated 10,000 people leaving their jobs in London, a much-desired aspect of the referendum. Resultant of the referendum for Brexit, the UK’s economy has taken a severe hit already. The British pound is 14% lower than before and after March 29th, the UK economy is set to decrease by 3.9 percent in case Britain exits with a deal. However, in the case of a No Deal situation, the economy would decrease by a larger percentage point of 9.3.
Theresa May’s Deal
Theresa May and the EU, in March of 2018, agreed on a deal providing a 21-month transition plan, which would allow EU nationals in the UK (3 million people) and UK nationals in the EU (1.3 million people) to live and work without a visa. Moreover, neither party would impose tariffs on imports, and the UK would be free to dictate taxes on imports from other countries.
A hard Brexit – Brexit under May’s deal – would be problematic for the nation’s economy. Companies would no longer be able to use it as an English-speaking entry to the European market, possibly resulting in a loss of 5000 jobs in London alone. UK companies could lose the ability to bid on public contracts in the EU. Young workers would also lose the opportunity to look for jobs in Germany, a country that is projected to have a labour shortage of 2 million workers. The deal promises a backstop border between Ireland and the Northern Ireland which is a part of the UK, which would be in place until a solution to the problem of the border - which in all likelihood doesn’t exist - is found. In this case, Northern Ireland would largely live under EU regulations.
No Deal Brexit
An alternative to this is a No-deal Brexit. In this case, the UK would leave the EU without a 21-month transition period. The UK would be able to set their own immigration controls for EU nationals. This may result in flights being grounded, leading to uncertainty for those working across borders. Relevant EU laws are planned to be transferred over to avoid “black holes” in the judicial system, but Britain, for the most part, would not have to abide by the rulings of the European Court of Justice.
This being the most likely path for Brexit, the UK would revert to WTO rules on trade requiring all vehicles in and out of the country to be checked for imposition of custom tariffs, etc., causing up to 6-days-worth of delays – a major concern especially in the case of perishable goods and medication. Moreover, in this case, there would be a customs border between Northern and Southern Ireland where goods and people entering the UK would be screened. This would trouble up to 35,000 commuters.
Withdrawal from Brexit
The UK could also vote to not have a Brexit at all. On the 10th of December 2018, the European Court of Justice ruled that the UK could choose to revoke its Brexit application unilaterally. This was a possibility as no other EU body is needed to approve the withdrawal. This is an option that is popular with many of May’s opponents. However, she has already condemned the idea stating that this isn’t even something that will be considered.
To sum-up, with the final date for Brexit lurking around the corner, there’s a lot that’s still up in the air. In order for a successful outcome to be reached, it is crucial that the country stop fighting a political battle and focus on how to act best moving forward towards reaching a suitable consensus.
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